Great Bend Tribune
Published January 8, 2023
The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, January 3 no change as we are still in extreme drought. There is little hope for any change in conditions in the short or even long term. The six to ten-day outlook (January 10 to 14) indicates a 60 to 80% chance of above normal temperatures and 33 to 40% chance of above normal precipitation, which isn’t much to begin with. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (January 12 to 18) indicates a continued 70 to 80% of above normal temperatures and a continued 33 to 40% chance of above normal precipitation. While the warmer temperature continues to hold, at least precipitation patterns are slightly more favorable.
Today, what does the upcoming weather look like for the 2023 cropping season. We are all well aware of the severe drought in our state and much of the Great Plains. Unfortunately, Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Nebraska are the epicenter for the drought. Much of the eastern half of the U.S. has seen greatly improved moisture conditions and even mush of California has seen significant and even torrential rains. So, what does the Climate Prediction Center forecast for 2023?
For us they are predicting above normal temperatures and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. January her is normally around one inch of liquid precipitation. The February through April outlook is for average to slight above average temperatures and a 30 to 50% chance of below normal precipitation here. Normally, precipitation starts to increases starting in February and is approximately 2 to 2.5 inches if liquid precipitation in March and over 3 inches in April. We would need significantly more that even average to really make a dent in the drought.
For May through July, the out look is for a 40 to 50% chance of above normal temperatures and equal chance of above or below normal precipitation. May and June are when we typically receive our most beneficial rains. Normal might at least allow us to produce a decent wheat crop and get spring row crops out of the ground.
The July through September outlook is for up to a 40% chance of above normal temperatures and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. In fact, the whole lower 48 states are forecasted to be warm to hot. Normal precipitation would be fantastic compared to last year. The problem is when we can overcome the extreme drought conditions and normal simply won’t allow for that.
October through December is essentially a carbon copy of July through September. Not what we need. It pays to remember these are predictions and can certainly change. Hopefully, the La Nina disappears and maybe even an El Nino might build off the west coast of South America.
One thing to keep in mind regarding precipitation. The total amount matters but so does when it falls. Timely rains can at least allow for average yields.