Great Bend Tribune
Published September 9, 2023
The drought monitor report as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, September 5 shows extreme drought creeping back into Barton County. Interestingly, the part of the state in the best shape is the western third of the state. The six to ten-day outlook (September 13 to 17) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning below normal for temperatures and a 33 to 50% chance of leaning to above normal precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (September 15 to 21) indicates normal temperatures and normal to a 33 to 50% chance of above normal for precipitation. Definitely a more favorable forecast for planting the 2024 wheat crop.
Last week’s column regarding adapting to a changing climate solicited an e-mail response which is always welcome. The point of their comments is that there is “no agreement on climate change.” Their concern was that people would be afraid we are running out of food and the yield long-term trend line is pointing upward. Comments that deserve their own column.
First, let’s address “running out of food.” We are not yet running low on food worldwide. However, there are parts of the globe where changes in climate have resulted in starvation without food aid. It may be extreme long-term drought and heat or typhoons and flooding rain events as in Pakistan last year. In Kansas, we need to remember the drought we are still in and what crop yields were. And remember 2012. We are still keeping up and food insecurity around the world is more a function income and political division. However, we must feed another two billion people in the next twenty-five years.
As far as yield trends go, yes, since 1950 the trend line for most of our crops has increased markedly. Breeding and cultural practice advances are responsible for this. However, there are limits to how much we can adapt our current major crops to conditions. Genetic engineering can help with water use efficiency and heat tolerance, but only up to a certain point. And there’s not much we can do to breed for 80 mph winds and softball size hail. And keep in mind that outside of wheat, our crops such as corn and soybeans are primarily livestock food.
To summarize the preceding two paragraphs, we are not yet in danger of not producing enough food, especially is we can reduce losses due to pests and reduce food waste. However, we will likely be rethink what we produce and how we feed livestock.
Finally, there is agreement on man influenced climate change by 97% of the scientific community. And as more and more data keep coming in across the globe, the evidence is becoming more overwhelming that we are indeed changing the climate. Where the climate scientists got it wrong was the pace of the heating and extreme weather conditions as it is happening more quickly than models indicated. The good news is there is still time to avert the worst level of heating.