Great Bend Tribune
Published August 19, 2023
The drought monitor report as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, August 15 shows some significant changes, especially for Western into Central Kansas. The western third of the state especially near the Colorado border improved substantially. A good portion out of drought and much has improved to abnormally dry and moderate drought. A huge improvement. Our area is now primarily up to only severe drought, however, this heat wave with little chance of rain will likely cause conditions to deteriorate. The six to ten-day outlook (August 22 to 26) indicates a 70 to 80% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of leaning to below normal precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (August 24 to 30) indicates a continued to a 60 to 70% chance of leaning to above normal temperatures and normal to a 33 to 40% chance of below normal for precipitation. Most corn is essentially made and much of the sorghum is in the milk stage. This forecast won’t help but the negative impact is less than it will be for late blooming sorghum and especially soybeans as plants are trying to fill pods. Also, not good for soil moisture for potential alfalfa stand establishment and wheat planting.
The area’s summer crops are heading to the finish line. Depending on when corn and grain sorghum were planted, weather for the next forty-five days will have a significant or minor affect on yield. Most corn is nearing physiological maturity and most sorghum has headed out in in at least the milk, if not soft dough stage. Soybeans are the most at risk for damage from heat and dry conditions as is the last cutting or two of alfalfa and other forages. But, what is the outlook for this fall and winter. Not just for wheat but what might we expect for the spring and our spring planted crops?
First, we finally lost the La Nina and are in an El Nino. These past two months showed this with the change in the precipitation pattern. So, what is forecasted for the next six months or so? For Kansas, from September through November, there are equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and the same for precipitation. Normal precipitation is approximately 4.5 to five inches total for this period in our area.
For November through January, temperatures are forecast as normal to up to a 40% chance of leaning above normal and a continued equal chance of above or below normal precipitation. Normal for this period here is around three inches.
For January through February, there are equal chances of above or below normal for both temperature and precipitation. This forecast continues for March through May.
What does this mean? Partly, NOAA isn’t sure how strong or long the El Nino pattern will be. The La Nina we just exited was much more intense and of a longer duration that typical and it’s hard to predict when dealing with the effects of climate change. At the very least, it looks mush more promising for the 2024 wheat crop than the 2023 wheat crop.