Great Bend Tribune
Published September 2, 2023
The drought monitor report as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, August 29 shows little change from the last two weeks. The six to ten-day outlook (September 5 to 9) indicates a 70 to 80% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 33 to 40% chance of leaning to below normal precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (September 7 to 13) indicates a continued to a 80 to 90% chance of leaning to above normal temperatures and normal to a 33 to 50% chance of below normal for precipitation. Good weather for maturing corn and milo. Terrible weather for dryland soybeans. Also, not good for planting wheat. Producers planting wheat this fall are well-advised to do whatever they can to keep what soil moisture is present.
Today, let’s switch gears from the present to the possible future of agriculture, including climate and other changes. First some assumptions concerning the climate:
- Extremes in weather from temperature and wind to precipitation appear to be coming more common. Naturally, there have always been variations in these patterns. El Nino and La Nina have been around forever. What appears to be changing is the intensity and extreme nature of these cycles and evidence indicates manmade climate change.
- This is global climate change so the changes will vary across the globe. Some areas will become drier while some wetter. Some areas sill become hotter while some only milder. And on and on.
- What changes in growing season length, if any, will occur. Will last and first dates of frost/freezing temperatures shift.
Today’s column isn’t providing answers but what we will need to consider:
- As an example, the fly free date for planting winter wheat in Kansas is based on the average date of the first frost to be effective in preventing Hessian fly infestations. The average date seems, on average to be shifting later. If true, how do we deal with it. Do we delay planting a bit more and hope there’s adequate time for plant establishment or worry more about soil moisture and base planting dates on that? Do we only plant varieties with resistance?
- With more open, milder winters are disease and insect pressures going to increase? Will pests normally not a major issue because of winter, become serious problems?
- With more extremes of precipitation, extreme drought to extreme precipitation. Do we need to reconsider what we plant? Shorter maturity hybrids needing less water? Do we focus more on harvesting vegetative growth and less on grain and seed?
- As severe wind events increase, how can we avoid the worst of the damage. Shorter hybrids and varieties? Lower populations for sturdier stalks? Higher populations in narrower rows so plants can help support each other?
- With severe wind and water erosion events should we work harder to eliminate tillage and maintain residue. Should we find cover crops to protect and stabilize the soil and provide organic matter?